Philosophy

This website is called Second Order Analysis is because I believe many key aspects of life and the world are complex–and competitive. To achieve success, therefore, requires a higher level of thinking and analysis.

What we have learned in school, what our lived experience has taught us, and what we observe in the world, are good starting points.

 

While we believe in the ‘Wisdom of the Crowd’, as a goo dtsrating point,   First order thinking is simply predicting the consequence—the direct consequence—from a given action. It ignores complexity: interactions of these consequences with unforeseen variables, subsequent consequences, systems dynamics. First-order thinking is superficial, easy, but insufficient for complex problems. Second-order thinking is thinking beyond the first step, and trying to predict or think through how down-line consequences may occur or subsequent events may unfold, and then planning for or anticipating those second order, third order, or ‘nth’ order effects. Second-order thinking is nuanced, harder, but more effective in complex situations. We believe investing, and complex decisions in life, require this deeper level of thought.

This is how we look at things: at investing, at living, at the world.